Metrics Report
The AIZEN prediction model has been rigorously evaluated across 23,110 predictions over a 13-month period from November 2023 to November 2024. The model demonstrates robust predictive capabilities with the following key performance metrics:
Perfect Accuracy Rate: 49.79% (predictions hitting target within 3 days)
Average Deviation from Close Price: 9.34%
Median Deviation from Close Price: 7.07%
Success Rate Consistency: Maintained above 37% across all months
Detailed Performance Analysis
1. Prediction Accuracy
Perfect Hit Rate: Nearly half (49.79%) of all predictions reached their target price within the 3-day window
Monthly Consistency: 11 out of 13 months showed perfect accuracy rates above 43%
Peak Performance: March 2024 achieved an exceptional 68.93% perfect accuracy
Base Performance: Even in the most challenging month (May 2024), maintained a 37.11% success rate
2. Deviation Analysis
Overall Precision:
Mean Deviation: 9.34% from closing prices
Median Deviation: 7.07% indicates controlled variance
The difference between mean and median suggests well-managed outlier
Monthly Stability:
Lowest Median Deviation: 5.38% (October 2024)
Highest Median Deviation: 10.18% (April 2024)
85% of months maintained median deviation below 8%
3. Monthly Performance Breakdown
Month
Predictions
Perfect Accuracy
Avg Deviation
Median Deviation
2023-11
1072
44.22%
8.40%
6.90%
2023-12
2051
56.80%
7.97%
5.40%
2024-01
2046
46.82%
8.97%
6.83%
2024-02
1903
50.55%
7.87%
5.75%
2024-03
2015
68.93%
9.74%
7.68%
2024-04
1950
44.31%
14.54%
10.18%
2024-05
2013
37.11%
9.94%
7.33%
2024-06
1920
43.12%
9.65%
7.74%
2024-07
1941
53.84%
8.36%
6.58%
2024-08
1922
47.66%
9.73%
8.54%
2024-09
1716
44.87%
8.39%
6.86%
2024-10
1891
52.88%
7.85%
5.38%
2024-11
670
58.06%
9.76%
8.05%
4. Temporal Analysis
Strong Performance Periods
March 2024:
Highest perfect accuracy rate: 68.93%
Moderate deviation metrics (Avg: 9.74%, Median: 7.68%)
Demonstrates model's capability in optimal market conditions
December 2023
Second-highest accuracy rate: 56.80%
Excellent precision (Median Deviation: 5.40%)
Shows model's effectiveness in year-end market conditions
Challenging Periods
April 2024:
Higher deviations (Avg: 14.54%, Median: 10.18%)
Maintained 44.31% perfect accuracy despite volatility
Demonstrates resilience in challenging market conditions
May 2024:
Lowest perfect accuracy rate: 37.11%
Moderate deviations (Avg: 9.94%, Median: 7.33%)
Shows model's baseline performance in adverse conditions
Investment Implications
1. Trading Strategy Considerations
Short-term Trading:
49.79% probability of hitting target within 3 days
Median deviation of 7.07% helps in setting stop-loss parameters
Consider position sizing based on monthly performance patterns
Risk Management:
Use the 9.34% average deviation for conservative position sizing
Consider tighter stops during historically volatile months (e.g., April)
Leverage stronger performance months for more aggressive strategies
2. Portfolio Integration
Allocation Sizing
Base position sizes on median deviation (7.07%)
Adjust based on monthly historical performance
Consider reducing exposure during historically volatile months
Risk-Adjusted Returns:
High perfect accuracy rate supports consistent returns
Stable deviation metrics enable reliable risk assessment
Monthly patterns allow for strategic exposure adjustment
Model Reliability Assessment
1. Consistency Metrics
Sustained performance across 13 months
Stable perfect accuracy rates (37-69% range)
Controlled deviation metrics across market cycles
2. Risk Management Capabilities
Predictable deviation patterns
Well-managed outliers (mean-median deviation spread)
Identifiable monthly performance patterns
3. Market Adaptability
Consistent performance across different market conditions
Resilience during volatile periods
Strong performance in both bullish and bearish markets
The AIZEN prediction model demonstrates exceptional capabilities in cryptocurrency price prediction, combining high accuracy with stable performance metrics. The model's ability to maintain consistent performance across different market conditions, coupled with its high perfect accuracy rate and controlled deviation metrics, makes it a valuable tool for institutional and professional trade.
Key strengths include:
Consistent perfect accuracy rate near 50%
Stable deviation metrics under 10%
Reliable performance across market conditions
Clear monthly performance patterns for strategy optimization
These characteristics make the AIZEN model particularly suitable for:
Systematic trading strategies
Risk-managed portfolio allocation
Professional trading operations
Institutional investment integration
The model's performance metrics suggest it can be a reliable component of a professional trading operation, particularly when combined with proper risk management and position sizing strategies.
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